Retail
The National Retail Federation predicts a record-breaking 2025 holiday season, with U.S. sales for November and December projected to grow between 3.7 percent and 4.2 percent—pushing total holiday sales past $1 trillion for the first time. Yet there also are signs that consumers are nervous; that mood, plus accounting for inflation, could leave holiday spending relatively flat.
From Dead Mall to Living District: Replacing the “Great Wall of Galleria” with a Connected Urban Core
For decades, civic leaders have tried to revitalize Market Street, San Francisco’s central thoroughfare, only to see their efforts founder. “I sometimes call it the great white whale of San Francisco,” says Eric Tao, managing partner at L37 Development in San Francisco and co-chair of ULI San Francisco. “Every new mayor, every new planning director, every new economic development director has chased that white whale.” This year, however, an international competition of ideas hosted and run by ULI San Francisco, with support from the ULI Foundation, generated fresh momentum for reimagining the boulevard. The competition drew 173 submissions from nine countries and sparked new conversations about the future of downtown San Francisco.
The OAK project began in 2009, when a development firm set their sights on the corner of Northwest Expressway and North Pennsylvania Avenue, the state’s most important and busiest retail intersection. As the region’s only parcel capable of supporting a vertically integrated project of this scale and density, that land represented an opportunity to create something truly special.
As aging retail continue to evolve, one increasingly popular trend has been to redesign malls as town centers—recalling a time when such commercial districts were the heart and soul of a community. Mall–to–town center retrofits are emerging throughout the nation, especially in suburban communities, where pedestrian-friendly, mixed-use environments are highly attractive to millennials now raising families.
Consumers have kept a steady foot on the gas this year. A record-high 197 million consumers shopped in stores or online over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF). The NRF forecasts that holiday sales will grow between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent, with total retail spending in the United States falling between $979.5 billion and $989 billion during November and December. That forecast also is consistent with NRF’s annual U.S. sales growth—between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent—for 2024.
After a quiet first half of 2024, CMBS originations increased 59 percent in Q3 on a year-over-year basis, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Quarterly Survey.
Northern Mexico has experienced a significant expansion in the Mexican industrial real estate sector since its major decline from the late 1990s to the early 2000s, due, in part, to low-cost production in China. During the pandemic, that trend began to shift.
The National Retail Federation’s Hot 25 Retailers ranks the nation’s fastest-growing retail companies. Rankings are determined by increases in domestic sales between 2022 and 2023; all retail companies with global sales in excess of $2 billion, and key format leaders were eligible.
While retail leasing in the United States has been healthy according to JLL’s Q2 data, retailers have shown a preference for smaller formats while repurposing some parking for other uses.
ULI San Francisco recently hosted a panel revisiting the recommendations made by ULI Advisory Servies panelists to revive the downtown and highlighting the progress that has been made.
The impact of daytime workers on certain types of retail has long been overstated. Yes, they provide critical support for lunch eateries and coffee bars, as well as select services including fitness studios and shoe repair. But downtowns could never count on this demographic for much more than that.
Headlines have long proclaimed the demise of the American shopping mall. Despite undeniable shifts in the retail landscape, the truth about these spaces is more nuanced. These massive parcels often stand in prime locations and therefore hold massive potential to sidestep scrap-and-redevelop and to truly evolve.
It’s tough to view a strong economy as bad news. Yet a firmly positive economic projection in ULI’s Real Estate Economic Forecast does not bode well for commercial real estate participants who are hoping for relief in rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
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As the recent cultural and real estate realignment called “The Great Mall Sorting” continues, A-plus malls are thriving, while the B and C properties are gradually being repurposed, reused, and completely rethought, according to architect Sean Slater, senior principal at the architectural firm RDC in San Diego.
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Neglected yet historic department store remade into a vibrant destination anchored by buzzy health food grocer.
Companies including Macy’s, Nordstrom, Kohl’s, and IKEA are rolling out small-format stores around the country, often in suburban areas, as they try other ways to connect with their customers.
While some big-box retail stores are closing, some developers are eyeing opportunities with retail-to-life science conversions or additions.
According to Placer Labs, these 10 growing retail chains had the foot traffic in 2021 to set them up for future growth in brick-and-mortar retail.
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During the recent ULI Asia Experience the Experience retail summit, real estate developer, owner, and operator Sid Yog, founder of the Xander Group and chairman of Virtuous Retail (VR) South Asia, discussed the broader Indian retail sector, as well as several of the company’s recent urban Indian retail developments. Joining him in the conversation was Susheela Rivers, office managing partner, co-chair for the global real estate sector, and head of real estate Asia Pacific for DLA Piper.
At the 2020 ULI Asia Pacific Leadership Convivium, an international retail CEO shared her experience of engaging with customers, both offline and online, during the COVID-19 pandemic and how working with understanding landlords has helped create win/win outcomes.
Bangkok mastered the art of glitzy retail palaces. Now, authenticity is the favored currency.
A retail developer and ULI longtime leader shares how his firm is approaching the current shutdown in the United States and beyond.
Singapore-based developer CapitaLand is harvesting data to boost the revenues of its retail tenants and to help it locate future malls. Speaking at the ULI Asia Pacific Convivium, Chris Chong, managing director at CapitaLand Retail, said that the company uses data to boost both footfall and spending for tenants in its malls, which will ultimately benefit the landlord.
At the 2019 ULI U.K. National Conference, a panel on the practicalities of real estate investment reflected on the opportunities and challenges, not least in terms of the impact that Brexit is having on investor sentiment, as well as where we are in the market cycle. Multifamily continues to do well, while retail is struggling as in overbuilt markets.
The growing popularity of online grocery shopping could result in demand for up to 35 million square feet (3.25 million sq m) of U.S. cold-storage space shifting from retail stores to warehouses and distribution centers within the next seven years, according to a report from CBRE.
At the 2018 ULI Europe Conference in Berlin, a number of discussions on the future of the retail business looked at the changing shopping center ecosystems and what developers could be doing better.
A new report from CBRE highlights that the two categories occupying the most space in U.S. malls—department stores at 48.7 percent of gross leasable area, and apparel, accessories, and shoes at 29.4 percent—also posted relatively tepid retail-sales growth from 2011 to 2016. In contrast, categories with stronger retail-sales growth, such as health care, still account for relatively little occupancy of U.S. malls
In addition to Amazon’s purchase of Whole Foods, an enormous amount of movement has occurred in the grocery sector in the past year, as regional chains expand into new markets and European brands enter the United States.
