Commercial real estate already faces many challenges because of an unprecedented rise in interest rates, tightening credit capacity, uncertainty in the office market, a $2.6 trillion wave of maturing debt over the next four years, and overall economic anxiety. Adding to this complexity, financial regulators are pushing for a significant increase in capital requirements—by as much as 20 percent—for the nation’s largest banks via the Basel III “endgame.”

In a market accustomed to abundant supplies of cheap debt, the real estate landscape in the Asia Pacific region is undergoing a significant transformation following the series of rapid interest rate hikes initiated by the U.S. Federal Reserve since mid-2022, according to the 18th edition of the Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Asia Pacific 2024. In the absence of asset revaluations, far fewer deals are now able to deliver accretive returns, prompting large global investors to retreat to the sidelines as they wait for markets to reset

ULI MEMBER-ONLY CONTENT: According to the latest ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast, investors are expected to buy just $312 billion in commercial real estate in 2023. That’s a fraction of the volume of sales in 2021 and $100 billion less than expected in the spring forecast just six months ago.

Many office property owners are heading for the exits amid weaker demand and looming debt maturities, while opportunistic private equity groups are leaning in to capture what could be once-in-a-generation buying opportunities.

Real estate economists continue to expect a slowdown in the U.S. economy and real estate markets over the next year, consistent with their outlook six months ago, according to a ULI survey. The economy will slow meaningfully in 2024 before improving in 2025. The Real Estate Economic Forecast, produced by the ULI Center for Real Estate Economics and Capital Markets Estate, is based on a survey including 39 economists and analysts at 35 leading real estate organizations.

As interest rates have risen, crowdfunding platforms have returned as a viable source of capital for developers.

Although deals are still getting done, it is a tough market to find capital to fund acquisitions and development, and the need to deleverage maturing loans in a higher rate environment is fueling concerns about rising commercial real estate loan stress. That challenging market is evident in slumping transaction activity.

Although residential fell more in the first quarter of 2023, office remains Europe’s most scarred commercial real estate sector, according to advisory firm Green Street. Government mandates around sustainability are also tightening, and Cushman & Wakefield says 76 percent of European office space could be obsolete by 2030 unless landlords start investing now.

Sid Yog, the founding partner of Xander Group, reflected on his career in discussion with ESR Hong Kong managing director Rui Hua Chang during a fireside chat at the ULI Asia Pacific Summit 2023 in Singapore.

Limited supply of real estate assets—particularly properties which have the high environmental standards being demanded by occupiers—as well as the boost provided to rental income by inflation are positives amid persistent uncertainty in the European real estate market, according to a panel of executives during the 2023 ULI Europe Conference.