Real estate economists’ outlook on the U.S. economy and real estate markets improved throughout the year as economic data remain strong and real estate values and performance seem to be nearing bottom. Survey responses indicate that a soft landing has become the consensus view. The Fall 2024 ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast, a semiannual survey of economists and analysts, marks a shift toward greater optimism for real estate performance in the near term, with recovery taking shape in 2025.
Real estate economists’ outlook on the U.S. economy has improved over the past six months as economic data remain strong, and the long-predicted economic slowdown has failed to materialize. Responses to the latest semi-annual ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast survey, increasingly suggest a soft landing for the economy. In contrast, real estate market projections have declined as high-interest rates are expected to continue putting downward pressure on valuations and drag on performance in the near term.
Real estate economists continue to expect a slowdown in the U.S. economy and real estate markets over the next year, consistent with their outlook six months ago, according to a ULI survey. The economy will slow meaningfully in 2024 before improving in 2025. The Real Estate Economic Forecast, produced by the ULI Center for Real Estate Economics and Capital Markets Estate, is based on a survey including 39 economists and analysts at 35 leading real estate organizations.
The Real Estate Economic Forecast, produced by the ULI Center for Real Estate Economics and Capital Markets, is based on a survey conducted in April 2023 of 41 economists and analysts at 37 leading real estate organizations. According to the survey, the U.S. economy will slow in 2023 and 2024, with recovery expected to begin in 2025. The real estate market will follow suit, with flat to negative results over the next two years, followed by mostly positive news in 2025.
Real estate economists offered a less optimistic forecast of the near-term U.S. real estate and economic environment compared with six months ago, downgrading predictions for a wide range of economic, capital market, and real estate variables. Some of the biggest changes to forecasts included 2023 gross domestic product, job growth, and private real estate returns, according to the Fall 2022 ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast.
Real estate economists predict solid performance by U.S. property markets over the next three years, according to the spring 2022 ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast. This is in spite of predictions of rising inflation and slower economic growth as a result of the Russia/Ukraine conflict and other developments. While the real estate–related components of the forecast are generally positive, contributing economists downgraded near-term economic growth and predicted significantly higher inflation and interest rates during the forecast period (2022–2024) compared with the prior forecast.
Real estate economists predict continued improvement in the U.S. economy and property markets over the next three years, according to the fall 2021 ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast. While the forecast is generally positive, contributing economists downgraded economic growth and predicted significantly higher inflation during the forecast period (2021–2023) compared with the spring forecast.
Real estate economists predict markedly improved U.S. economic and property market conditions over the next three years, 2021 to 2023, compared with the forecast of six months ago, according to the spring ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast.
U.S. real estate economists predict generally improved economic and property market news for the rest of 2020, as well as for the following two years, compared with their forecasts of six months ago, according to the fall 2020 ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast.
According to survey data from the latest ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast, the current economic recession will be short-lived in the United States, with above-average gross domestic product growth returning in 2021 and 2022. Second, the impact on real estate market conditions and values will be relatively modest and much less severe than the impact experienced during the global financial crisis, with some exceptions by sector.
