Experts say the best-case scenario for recovery from January’s wildfires in Los Angeles is to rebuild more than 80 percent of the destroyed homes by mid-2028. To achieve this goal, roughly 300 homes need to be built every month, according to the authors of Project Recovery, a report developed by ULI Los Angeles, UCLA, and USC that provides actionable recommendations to expedite rebuilding after the fires.
Gadi Kaufmann—chairman of RCLCO, who led the rebuilding section of Project Recovery—says that the estimate is based, in part, on an analysis of previous fires. To achieve the best-case scenario, “sixty to seventy percent of the homes” should begin construction in 2026, Kaufmann says. Then, in 2027 and 2028, “We’ll [need to] start the rest of them,” says Kaufmann, who also sits on the board of UCLA’s Ziman Center.
Gadi Kaufmann, chair of RCLCO and a longtime ULI leader, also led the rebuilding section of Project Recovery for ULI
ULI
Santa Rosa’s 2017 Tubbs Fire—at the time, the costliest in California history—was particularly instructive as a case study for how to achieve these goals, he says. That fire destroyed 1,500 homes in the Coffey Park neighborhood alone. Within three years, 80 percent of those homes were fully rebuilt and occupied.
Santa Rosa and Sonoma Counties helped speed the rebuilding process after the Tubbs Fire by creating rebuilding authorities that streamlined permitting, dedicated resources to rebuilding, and implemented policy changes that set a model for post-disaster recovery.
Experts now urge that Los Angeles chart a similar course, albeit on a larger scale (more than 16,000 structures were damaged or destroyed by the Eaton and Palisades fires). To do so, a lot needs to happen fast. Homeowners and financial institutions need clarity on the safety of the soil in the Pacific Palisades, Malibu, and Altadena. The self-permitting program that L.A. mayor Karen Bass announced needs to be enacted. Insurance reforms need to take shape.
Project Recovery’s authors recommend that, once the most urgent building blocks are in place, local and state governments run top-down community rebuilding authorities (CRAs) to orchestrate and accelerate rebuilding in affected areas. Such an organization’s mandate would be to establish a financing authority to fund everything from individual mortgages to infrastructure rebuilding.
“To effectuate an effective rebuilding process, [there needs to be] a local authority . . . to preside over the rebuilding of everything, from the infrastructure to the roads and power lines, sewers . . . through the vertical rebuilding of homes and commercial and public facilities,” Kaufmann says.
Will CRAs expedite recovery?
Logistical bottlenecks and red tape can stifle recovery efforts. Some experts theorize that establishing a CRA as the nerve center for rebuilding can help prevent those things from happening.
The CRA should provide financial assistance to help homeowners bridge gaps, Project Recovery’s experts suggest. The CRA also should urgently create an insurance fund to secure coverage for fire-affected communities.
To rebuild a home, homeowners have to secure construction and mortgage financing. To get that financing, “You have to have insurance,” Kaufmann says. “So, working backwards, we need to solve for the availability of insurance, and for that insurance to be not only available but also affordable.”
In addressing such urgent needs as insurance and rebuilding infrastructure—including undergrounding utilities to put neighborhoods online and prevent future fires—it’s essential that CRAs remove red tape, rather than adding it, says Nadine Watt, CEO of Watt Capital Partners. Watt, who contributed to Project Recovery, noted that the CRA concept does not yet appear to have buy-in from local authorities.
“If they’re government-backed or government-initiated, I’m worried about bureaucracy,” Watt says. “I’m worried about too many layers [of bureaucracy] and having to go through too many hands to be efficient.”
To complement these efforts, bottom-up nonprofit support systems need to be established to help homeowners navigate a maze of insurance, permitting, and financing, Kaufmann says.
After Project Recovery was published, its authors concluded that “there may be room for another rebuilding organization that is not-for-profit and not government-sponsored,” Kaufmann says. Such a nonprofit could provide “advocacy, coordination, and support” for residents, commercial property owners, and business owners trying to rebuild.
The need for a builders’ alliance
Project Recovery’s experts also recommend the establishment of a private-sector builders’ alliance that can offer turnkey solutions to homeowners who prefer not to hire an architect and a contractor and, instead, to undertake rebuilding on their own. Think of it as a streamlined, private-sector solution to reduce complexity, costs, and delays.
This alliance could offer homeowners pre-approved, ready-to-build floor plans. Using them could shrink rebuilding timelines from 1.5–3 years to as little as 9 months, Kaufmann says.
Big homebuilders have the resources, scale, and motivation to achieve what the government may not be able to accomplish, Watt says. By pooling resources and using economies of scale, the alliance could negotiate lower prices for bulk purchases of construction supplies.
“I think the builders’ alliance could have buy-in,” says Watt, who is part of a consortium of homebuilders taking on Palisades rebuilding projects that don’t have major changes to their original floor area ratio. Projects without major changes can move through the rebuilding process faster, thanks to an executive order from the mayor that allows such projects to avoid triggering zoning approvals. “[It could] become a one-stop shop,” Watt says.
The return of community life
Rebuilding homes is only part of the work. Bringing the community back together is just as important. Rebuilding schools, parks, and shared spaces comes with many challenges and unknowns, though.
Basic infrastructure must come first, according to Watt. “You can’t go vertical until utilities[—]water and sewer—are in place,” she says. “This work is slow but necessary.”
“Schools, places of worship, and parks need to come back soon,” Kaufmann said.
Whether schools, especially, come back soon enough for families comes down to their timelines. Families with young children may be unable to wait as long as ones without, Watt says. She adds that a family-friendly community vibe “is what the Palisades was known for.”
“Everyone kind of knew each other,” she said. “You knew your neighbors, you had your neighbors looking out for you and taking your kids when you couldn’t get home in time.” Watt says it may take time to regain the density that allows for that community spirit.
Kaufmann said a sense of community is based on human connections—knowing the mailperson, for example—and having common facilities where the community meets.
“Rebuilding physical structures is comparatively easy, but rebuilding community life is harder,” Kaufmann says. “We know 80 percent of residents intend to come back if they can, but there’s a substantial fall-off after two or three years.”
This article is part of a series examining topics in the Project Recovery report. Join us next Friday for a new installment.
Related reading:
● Holding on to Altadena: Rebuilding to Preserve Housing Wealth
● January 2025 Economist Snapshot: Los Angeles Wildfires Recovery Will Be Costly and Lengthy
