Japan Restored: How Japan Can Reinvent Itself and Why This Is Important for America and the World
Clyde Prestowitz
Tuttle Publishing
364 Innovation Drive,
North Clarendon, VT 05759; www.tuttlepublishing.com.
2016. 287 pages. Hardcover, $22.95.
Something in Japan needs to change under its current outlook, writes Clyde Prestowitz, a longtime Asia expert and Asian trade negotiator for the Reagan and Clinton administrations, in Japan Restored: How Japan Can Reinvent Itself and Why This Is Important for America and the World. And other developed countries may soon face the same fate.
In the most immediate sense, Japan’s outlook is driven by demographics. Its population is aging rapidly, and the birth rate is below replacement level. Immigrants are largely unwelcome, so they cannot help lower the overall age of the population. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth has been slow or zero for many years, and nuclear power is at a standstill. These are among Japan’s problems in 2016, which Prestowitz describes as a “year of crisis.”
Skip ahead to 2050. The author sees Japan with a growing population and workforce, accepting of immigrants, with a thriving economy. More women are working, thanks to widespread adoption of family-friendly policies. Offices close at 5 p.m., and men are no longer expected to spend long evenings at bars with work colleagues. They are encouraged to go home and spend time with their families. That change makes the workplace more attractive to women, as does paid leave for child care and elder care. Three months of paternity leave is mandatory.
By 2050, homes are larger and often include office space to accommodate widespread telecommuting and live-in domestic or elder-care workers. That is possible in crowded Japan partly because deregulation has opened land formerly reserved for small farming to residential use. The deregulation and decentralization that Prestowitz sees between 2016 and 2050 bring other improvements. Local initiatives in one town, Toyama City, started in 2009, as Mayor Mori Masashi worked on developing a “compact city” that would serve an aging population. Hospitals, shops, and administrative services were built within easy reach of public transit. Low-cost residential space was provided to encourage the elderly to move downtown.
Another adaptation for older citizens in 2050 Japan: Because of the excellent health care and long life span, full-pension retirement age has been raised to 80. Older workers are offered more flexible schedules, and most Japanese change careers after age 65 to less physically demanding jobs.
Transportation in this future Japan is more pleasant and efficient than today’s traffic jams and is a plausible extension of current trends. The bullet trains will be driven by robots, and the entire automotive fleet will be connected (to each other and the roads) and self-driven. Passengers simply tell the car where they want to go, and the car drives there via the most efficient route. Thanks to regulations and tax incentives, all the cars on the road are electric or electric/diesel hybrid, creating a cleaner and healthier environment.
Many of these changes result from recommendations by the Extraordinary National Revitalization Commission, a taskforce that Prestowitz imagines created by the Diet with the mission of reinventing Japan. Some of the ideas presented here would require major cultural change, such as in Japan’s patriarchal attitude and anti-immigrant stance. But all can agree that a big jolt is needed, and any reasonable ideas should be entertained.
