In a general session at the 2024 ULI Spring Meeting, former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton spoke with Ralph Rosenberg, a partner and global head of real estate with KKR. Clinton, who now teaches at Columbia University, focused her remarks on what she said are the three major conflicts affecting the global economy.
“It’s always difficult when you are in the middle of significant global changes to fully understand them or explain how we got to where we are,” said Clinton, who ran for president in 2016. “Several things happened simultaneously over the last 20-plus years that have had an amplifying effect … starting with 9/11, which many of us in New York lived through and worked with.”
Clinton touched on the wars that were fought over the following decade as a result of those attacks, as well as the great financial crisis of 2008 and 2009.
“That left a lot of uncertainty and instability … on the part of many people in our own country and around the world,” said Clinton. She said the instability also led to some credibility issues with the U.S. as a global leader: “That laid the groundwork for a lot of reassessment in the eyes of adversaries and competitors.”
Ukraine
Clinton noted that Russia, under Vladimir Putin, invaded Georgia in 2008, but not much was done beyond sanctions. Then the conflict in Syria led to a migration crisis into Europe, which in turn led to a resurgence of nationalism across parts of Europe.
“The end game is on Putin’s side to get away with as much as he can,” said Clinton.
She noted that most autocrats or dictators will often go as far as they are allowed. Clinton also noted that current Chinese President Xi Jinping has further solidified his control of that country, which she said is “never good.”
Middle East
Clinton said that on some level the conflict in the Middle East is about the primacy of Iran, a country with proxies in Iraq, Syria, Gaza, and other regions across the Middle East.
She said there was no doubt in the minds of Hamas’ leadership as to how Israel would respond to the October 7 attacks and kidnappings.
Clinton noted she negotiated a ceasefire in 2012 with current Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “There is an effort right now in Cairo to get a ceasefire,” she said. “But don’t take your eye off the role of Iran in this region.”
Clinton also said Netanyahu has been focused on a peace deal with Saudi Arabia since she was secretary of state, but that has likely been delayed by the conflict in Gaza.
China
“The Chinese economy is not doing well itself, which puts pressure on the leadership. Their demographic challenges are also not going away,” said Clinton.
She noted that U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is currently in China talking about economic policies that could be mutually beneficial for both countries.
Clinton said China is trying to rebuild its exports, but the U.S. has shifted some of its supply chain away from China’s low-cost manufacturing in favor of “friendshoring” or “nearshoring.” The costs may be higher, she said, but the stability of the supply chain is more reliable.
On the positive side, Clinton noted that she will be attending a state dinner with the prime minister of Japan, who has increased defense spending and taken a larger role in counter balancing China along with Australia.
She said the U.S. military is in the process of reopening bases in the Philippines that had been closed due to the tense political climate a decade ago.
New York City and Recovery
Clinton continues to live near New York City and does much of her work there. “I’m always optimistic about New York,” she said. “It has so much strength. But this is one of those moments that we really need to come together to figure out the best path forward.”
Clinton asked rhetorically what kind of public-private partnerships might be most beneficial to the city. She also said many of the city’s migrants are beginning to get hired, further stimulating the economy.
Clinton said the housing and the land use issue needs to be addressed so that middle-class residents don’t leave New York City.
Clinton noted that the Clinton Global Foundation worked with the Malkin family to modernize the Empire State Building, so she is optimistic about the combination of the private, public, and philanthropic sectors to come up with a path forward, even if it takes five years or longer to get there.
