Monday’s Numbers: September 27, 2010

The Commercial Mortgage Alert Trepp weekly survey of 15 active portfolio lenders trended higher with average spreads up 8 basis points (0.08 percent) between September 3rd and September 17th. During the period, 10-year Treasury bond yields declined 14 basis points, with average all-in cost equal to equal to 4.89 percent.

The Commercial Mortgage Alert Trepp weekly survey (below) of 15 active portfolio lenders trended higher with average spreads up 8 basis points (0.08 percent) between September 3rd and September 17th. During the period, 10-year Treasury bond yields declined 14 basis points, with average all-in cost equal to equal to 4.89 percent.


Asking Spreads over U.S. Treasury Bonds in Basis Points

(10-year Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Loans with 50% to 59% Loan-to-Value ratios)

12/31

8/6

8/13

9/3

9/10

9/17

Office

342

241

244

241

236

248

Retail

326

229

234

229

221

231

Multifamily

318

209

215

209

208

207

Industrial

333

225

231

225

220

230

Average Asking Spread

330

226

231

226

221

229

10-Year Treasury

3.83%

2.67%

2.61%

2.70%

2.74%

2.60%

Source: Commercial Mortgage Alert; Trepp.

Spreads in the September 16 Cushman & Wakefield Sonnenblick-Goldman fixed and floating mortgage rate survey (below) remained basically unchanged from the prior survey period, most probably reflecting the end of summer final vacation period. Conservatively underwritten commercial real estate loans continue to be priced at sub-five percent levels.

Property Type

Mid-Point of Fixed Rate Commercial Mortgage

Spreads For 5 Year Commercial Real Estate Mortgages

1/6/10

7/28/10

8/12/10

8/31/10

9/16/10

Multifamily - Non-Agency

+360

+310

+300

+300

+280

Multifamily – Agency

+220

+240

+240

+240

+240

Regional Mall

+450

+330

+300

+290

+290

Strip/Power Center

+460

+350

+325

+300

+300

Multi-Tenant Industrial

+435

+320

+300

+280

+280

CBD Office

+435

+330

+310

+270

+270

Suburban Office

+465

+340

+325

300

+300

Full-Service Hotel

+500

+430

+400

+400

+400

Limited-Service Hotel

+500

+450

+450

+450

+450

5-Year Treasury

2.60%

1.71%

1.58%

1.41%

1.51%

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Sonnenblick Goldman.

Property Type

Mid-Point of Fixed Rate Commercial Mortgage

Spreads For 10 Year Commercial Real Estate Mortgages

1/6/10

7/28/10

8/12/10

8/31/10

9/16/10

Multifamily - Non-Agency

+300

+190

+180

+180

+180

Multifamily – Agency

+220

+190

+190

+190

+190

Regional Mall

+350

+220

+200

+200

+200

Strip/Power Center

+350

+230

+220

+210

+200

Multi-Tenant Industrial

+420

+235

+230

+205

+200

CBD Office

+330

+235

+210

+225

+190

Suburban Office

+355

+240

+225

+225

+220

Full-Service Hotel

+550

+350

+350

+350

+350

Limited-Service Hotel

+575

+380

380

+380

+380

10-Year Treasury

3.85%

2.97%

2.71%

2.61%

2.76%

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Sonnenblick Goldman.

Property Type

Mid-Point of Floating-Rate Commercial Mortgage

Spreads For 3 - 5 Commercial Real Estate Year Mortgages

1/6/10

7/28/10

8/12/10

8/31/10

9/16/10

Multifamily – Non-Agency

+300 – 400

+275-300

+275-300

+275-300

+275-325

Multifamily- Agency

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

Regional Mall

+475 – 600

+300-350

+300-350

+275-350

+275-350

Strip/Power Center

+450 – 650

+300-350

+300-350

+275-350

+275-350

Multi-Tenant Industrial

+400 – 500

+275-350

+275-350

+250-350

+250-350

CBD Office

+425

+275-350

+275-350

+225-300

+225-300

Suburban Office

+425

+300-350

+300-350

+250-350

+250-350

Full-Service Hotel

+600

+400-550

+400-550

+375-550

+375-500

Limited-Service Hotel

+750

+450-600

+450-600

+450-600

+450-550

1-Month LIBOR

0.23%

0.32%

0.40%

0.26%

0.26%

3-Month LIBOR

0.25%

0.48%

0.62%

0.31%

0.31%

* A dash (-) indicates a range.

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Sonnenblick Goldman.

Year-to-Date Public Equity Capital Markets

DJIA (1): +4.14%
S & P 500 (2):+3.01%
NASDAQ (3): +4.99%
Russell 2000 (4): +5.79%
MSCI U.S. REIT (5):+18.01%

(1) Dow Jones Industrial Average. (2) Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index. (3) NASD Composite Index. (4) Small Capitalization segment of U.S. equity universe. (5) Morgan Stanley REIT Index.


U.S. Treasury Yields

1/6/10

4/9/10

9/17/10

9/24/10

3-Month

.016%

0.15%

0.15%

0.14%

6-Month

0.25%

0.23%

0.19%

0.19%

2 Year

0.99%

1.06%

0.46%

0.44%

5 Year

2.60%

2.62%

1.43%

1.35%

10 Year

3.85%

3.88%

2.74%

2.60%

Source: Bloomberg LLP.

Stephen R. Blank joined ULI in December 1998 as Senior Fellow, Finance. His primary responsibilities include: expanding ULI’s real estate capital markets information and education programs; authoring real estate capital market commentary; participating as a principal researcher and adviser for the Emerging Trends in Real Estate series of publications; organizing and participating in real estate capital markets programs at ULI events worldwide; and participating in industry meetings, seminars, and conferences. Prior to joining ULI, Blank served from December 1993 to November 1998 as Managing Director, Real Estate Investment Banking of Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. His responsibilities included: structuring, underwriting, and executing corporate financings including initial public offerings of common and preferred shares, unsecured debentures, and convertible bonds; property acquisitions, dispositions, and financing; and financial advisory services including mergers and acquisitions, corporate restructurings, and recapitalizations.
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