Author: William Maher
William Maher is director of Americas Strategy and Research at LaSalle Investment Management.
Articles by William Maher
- ULI Forecast Says Longest U.S. Economic and Real Estate Expansion to Continue through 2021
Published on September 30, 2019 in Capital Markets
Although real estate economists have tempered their view on economic growth over the past six months, according to the latest ULI survey data, they continue to forecast positive GDP growth, slower but solid job growth, and steady real estate markets and returns through 2021. This is despite the U.S. yield curve inverting (often a harbinger of a recession), an escalation of the U.S.-China trade dispute, and slowing economic growth in Europe, particularly in the United Kingdom and Germany.
- Real Estate Economists Forecast Slower Growth and Returns in 2021
Published on April 26, 2019 in Capital Markets
Despite stock and bond market volatility in late 2018 and increasing global trade and growth concerns, the April 2019 “ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast” was surprisingly consistent with the previous forecast, released in October 2018. Overall, expectations for 2019 and 2020 are flat to up, while the newly introduced forecast for 2021 calls for slower growth and returns. Moderating growth in gross domestic product (GDP) and jobs for 2019 to 2021 should lead to slower but still positive real estate demand and absorption. Expectations for the real estate market are modest, and the sector is relatively well prepared for slower economic growth, if it occurs.
- Real Estate Economists Remain Positive on U.S. Economy and CRE Industry
Published on September 24, 2018 in Capital Markets
Real estate economists continue to have a generally bullish outlook for the U.S. economy, capital markets, and real estate fundamentals. These results are based on the semiannual ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast, prepared by the ULI Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate. Overall, expectations have improved since the prior forecast in March 2018, and the strong second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 4.2 percent was fresh in forecasters’ minds as they weighed in on future years.
- Real Estate Economists Staying Positive but Reining in Optimism
Published on October 09, 2017 in Capital Markets
After predicting an uptick in U.S. economic growth and interest rates six months ago, real estate economists have tempered their forecasts, moving closer to the predictions of one year ago, according to the results of the semiannual ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast, prepared by the ULI Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate. The survey was completed by 46 economists/analysts at 35 leading real estate organizations in September and early October.
- Improving U.S. Economics, Modest Rent Growth Forecast through 2019
Published on April 17, 2017 in Market Trends
The latest survey of U.S. real estate economists showed a marked increase in expected economic measures, most likely due to federal proposals to reform the tax code, reduce regulatory burdens, and invest in infrastructure. Compared with the same survey from six months ago, real estate economists have higher expectations about gross domestic product (GDP) growth, employment growth, and housing starts.
- Real Estate Forecasts Continue to Moderate
Published on October 18, 2016 in Capital Markets
The latest survey of U.S. real estate economists shows continued declines in expected economic and real estate growth rates. Compared with six months ago, real estate economists have reduced their expectations about economic growth, interest rates, commercial mortgage–backed securities (CMBS) issuance, housing starts, and private real estate returns. One area of greater optimism is the industrial sector, with forecasts of lower availability and higher rents and returns.
- U.S. Real Estate Economists Growing More Cautious
Published on April 05, 2016 in Capital Markets
Mild caution is evident in the latest ULI survey of U.S. real estate economists. Compared with their analysis six months ago, real estate researchers are predicting slower economic growth, slipping real estate fundamentals, and lower returns from both the public and private markets. These results are based on the semiannual “ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast,” prepared by the ULI Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate and scheduled for release Wednesday, April 6.
- Real Estate Economists Lower Forecasts but Still Optimistic
Published on September 28, 2015 in Capital Markets
The latest survey results of the semiannual ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast, prepared by the ULI Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate, pick up on slowing global growth and volatility and are generally less bullish than six months ago. The full forecast will be released on September 30 as part of a members' only webinar.