Real estate economists’ outlook on the U.S. economy and real estate markets improved throughout the year as economic data remain strong and real estate values and performance seem to be nearing bottom. Survey responses indicate that a soft landing has become the consensus view. The Fall 2024 ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast, a semiannual survey of economists and analysts, marks a shift toward greater optimism for real estate performance in the near term, with recovery taking shape in 2025.
Real estate economists’ outlook on the U.S. economy has improved over the past six months as economic data remain strong, and the long-predicted economic slowdown has failed to materialize. Responses to the latest semi-annual ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast survey, increasingly suggest a soft landing for the economy. In contrast, real estate market projections have declined as high-interest rates are expected to continue putting downward pressure on valuations and drag on performance in the near term.
Real estate economists continue to expect a slowdown in the U.S. economy and real estate markets over the next year, consistent with their outlook six months ago, according to a ULI survey. The economy will slow meaningfully in 2024 before improving in 2025. The Real Estate Economic Forecast, produced by the ULI Center for Real Estate Economics and Capital Markets Estate, is based on a survey including 39 economists and analysts at 35 leading real estate organizations.
