The latest Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast California Commercial Real Estate Survey shows that despite the recent uncertainty in the stock market, increasing cap rates, and slower economic growth, developers’ views on California commercial real estate markets have not changed much from six months ago. Following the trends of the past two years, industrial space remains hot despite the economy’s fluctuations, multifamily housing remains strong in most markets, office has reached its peak, and retail markets continue to struggle.
A diverse group of experts presented a stark analysis of the rollout of federal Opportunity Zones during the recent ULI Housing Opportunity 2019 conference in Newport Beach, California. Two years after the program was established, there is still confusion over regulations and implementation, they said.
Jes Staley, CEO of multinational investment bank Barclays, spoke at the ULI Europe Conference in London, sharing his recent experiences addressing shifting financial regulations and the evolving opportunity presented by new technologies.
In addition to the gyrations of the stock market, the rate on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes surged past the 3 percent level into late September and early October. And yet, even with the turmoil in the financial markets, cap rates were unchanged to down from a year earlier in the fourth quarter.
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The clock is still ticking on real estate markets. “We are right at the end of a real estate cycle,” says Bowen H. “Buzz” McCoy, who joined the 25th annual ULI/McCoy Symposium on Real Estate Finance, held in December in New York City. Though the closed-door session is strictly confidential, some attendees shared their takeaways.
Speaking at the 2018 ULI China Mainland Winter Meeting in Shanghai, Steven Zhang, chief economist and head of research at Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities, outlined an optimistic economic outlook for China and other emerging economies. However, he said the economic and political upheaval that characterized 2018 would continue next year.
With strong consumer confidence, ongoing economic growth, and low unemployment, there are few signs of an imminent recession in recent U.S. economic data—but real estate experts speaking at a recent industry event in New York City said they want to be prepared. Speakers discussed their plans to manage shrinking investment yields and the risk of investing late in the real estate cycle.
With rising demand for small cohousing units, developers in Asia embrace the for-rent market.
Immigration-based investment programs are drawing investors and high-net-worth individuals from South and Central America to countries such as Portugal, Spain, and Cyprus, experts said during a panel discussion at the ULI Latin America Conference, held in Miami during September. U.S. tax reforms are also leading potential investors to take another look at markets in Nevada and Florida, they said.