Federal Reserve Beige Book Economic Survey: Mid-June to Mid-July

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book Economic Survey confirmed what many already suspected: the pace of economic recovery is slowing and it is becoming more likely that the current recovery will be “jobless”, which is bad news, especially for the real estate economy.

September 13, 2010

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The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book Economic Survey confirmed what many already suspected: the pace of economic recovery is slowing and it is becoming more likely that the current recovery will be “jobless”, which is bad news, especially for the real estate economy.

In regard to commercial real estate, the report noted the markets remain depressed, showing little progress since the prior survey as vacancy rates remain high and rents continue to decline. Only the Chicago and Cleveland districts reported some improvement.

Overall, lending was flat to weakening as with most districts reporting weaker business lending as borrowers respond to the weaker economic outlook.

Some good news: industry employment in New York, Washington, and Boston has surpassed its pre-recession peak. Some bad news: Chicago, Orlando, Los Angeles, and San Francisco have not.

The next chapter of the Beige Book will be released on October 20, 2010.

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Stephen Blank

Stephen R. Blank joined ULI in December 1998 as Senior Fellow, Finance. His primary responsibilities include: expanding ULI’s real estate capital markets information and education programs; authoring real estate capital market commentary; participating as a principal researcher and adviser for the Emerging Trends in Real Estate series of publications; organizing and participating in real estate capital markets programs at ULI events worldwide; and participating in industry meetings, seminars, and conferences. Prior to joining ULI, Blank served from December 1993 to November 1998 as Managing Director, Real Estate Investment Banking of Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. His responsibilities included: structuring, underwriting, and executing corporate financings including initial public offerings of common and preferred shares, unsecured debentures, and convertible bonds; property acquisitions, dispositions, and financing; and financial advisory services including mergers and acquisitions, corporate restructurings, and recapitalizations.