Demand for industrial space has pushed vacancies to historically low levels. But the high tide may no longer be lifting all boats. A surge in new supply along with a growing appetite for more modern facilities is putting more pressure on the sector’s aging building stock. Legacy buildings are having a tougher time keeping up with the changing demands of today’s space users.

Potential trouble brewing in a sector that has been viewed as relatively bulletproof multifamily sector is concerning. But while stress is very much real, industry participants are quick to point out that the overall foundation for multifamily remains strong. “The cracks that we’re seeing are not structural; they’re superficial,” says Vincent DiSalvo, chief investment officer at Kingbird Investment Management, a family office investment firm specializing in multifamily.

Despite the monetary headwinds and continued economic uncertainty around the world, there is a strong belief that the global real estate industry is at a “pivot point,” with improving prospects ahead for renewed investment activity, according to the latest Emerging Trends in Real Estate^® Global Outlook 2024 from PwC and the Urban Land Institute.

For months, if not years, panic-inducing headlines have lamented the existential crisis facing the U.S. office market as a “wall of maturities” looms: $2.2 trillion of commercial real estate debt coming due between now and the end of 2027, according to Trepp estimates.

The latest troubles at New York Community Bank have some observers wondering whether it could be a canary in the coal mine for the broader regional banking sector. Regional banks are definitely in a tough spot due to deposit flight, higher funding costs, and concerns about problematic commercial real estate loans. But, at least for now, troubles seem to be limited to a few isolated cases, rather than systemic.

The strain of higher interest rates is creating sleepless nights for some commercial real estate owners and operators these days. On the flip side, there is significant capital eagerly lining up to take advantage of market dislocation.

Uncertainty around asset prices likely to slow transactions.

ULI Asia Pacific report builds the business case.

Despite volatility and uncertainty, real estate investors are finding ways to make deals. A new consensus is forming around a “reset” in the economy and commercial real estate, according to the 2024 Emerging Trends in Real Estate forecast produced by PwC and ULI. “There’s this sentiment of guarded optimism,” says Bill Staffieri, partner with PwC. He presented the forecast to hundreds of real estate experts at the Real Estate Outlook 2024, hosted in late January in New York City by ULI New York.

Confidential format allows for frank conversations to help real estate leaders understand market trends.