Stephen Blank

Stephen R. Blank joined ULI in December 1998 as Senior Fellow, Finance. His primary responsibilities include: expanding ULI’s real estate capital markets information and education programs; authoring real estate capital market commentary; participating as a principal researcher and adviser for the Emerging Trends in Real Estate series of publications; organizing and participating in real estate capital markets programs at ULI events worldwide; and participating in industry meetings, seminars, and conferences. Prior to joining ULI, Blank served from December 1993 to November 1998 as Managing Director, Real Estate Investment Banking of Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. His responsibilities included: structuring, underwriting, and executing corporate financings including initial public offerings of common and preferred shares, unsecured debentures, and convertible bonds; property acquisitions, dispositions, and financing; and financial advisory services including mergers and acquisitions, corporate restructurings, and recapitalizations.

Happy St. Patrick’s Day. One reaction to last week’s posting: an experienced commercial banker based on the East Coast echoed our concerns regarding current investment activities and underwriting practices, saying spread compression is happening at an alarming pace and risk is being underpriced.
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, delinquency rates for commercial real estate mortgages continued to decline during the fourth quarter of 2013, reaching record low levels. CMBS rates were at 6.97 percent, as compared with the high of 9.02 percent during the second quarter of 2011.
Are we back where we started? The most recent Real Estate Research Corporation survey shows investment metrics near where they were at the height of the last decade.
According to the latest sentiment index survey by the Real Estate Roundtable, industry confidence is up modestly quarter over quarter, with policy headwinds remaining in a gridlocked Washington, D.C.
According to two reports last week, real estate investors worldwide are increasing their appetites for risk just as lenders are boosting lending.
It was a very quiet week, with the markets going this way and that. After December 2013’s disappointing jobs results, economists and analysts waited nervously for January 2014’s results.
According to Jones Lang LaSalle’s recently published “City Momentum Index,” San Francisco is currently the world’s most dynamic city. Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2014, published last fall, is in agreement.
Is it time to worry about lenders, and a race to the bottom in underwriting deterioration? Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings think so, as each recently noted weakening in underwriting standards for conduit-originated commercial mortgage–backed securities.
Last week, we reviewed capital flows in the real estate capital markets in 2013; this week, we climb out on a limb and start sawing as we try to forecast what 2014 will look like.
This week, we review the “how much, how little, how big, how small” of the real estate capital markets for 2013; next week, we will examine the projections, climb out on a limb, and try to forecast what 2014 will look like.
Members Sign In
Don’t have an account yet? Sign up for a ULI guest account.