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Beth Mattson-Teig

Beth Mattson-Teig is a freelance business writer and editor based in Minneapolis. She specializes in commercial real estate and finance topics. Mattson-Teig writes for several national business and industry publications and is the author of numerous white papers.

RXR CEO and Chairman Scott Rechler, in a recent ULI members-only webinar with ULI Foundation Chair Faron A. Hill, described the challenges and opportunities ahead as an epic, unavoidable storm. “That hurricane … eventually, it’s going to hit land,” Rechler warned. “The question is when it hits, how hard it hits, and where it hits the hardest.”
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In an economy where higher interest rates continue to squeeze the livelihood of commercial real estate market participants everyone is keeping a close watch on economic indicators that could signal a shift in Fed policy.
It’s no secret that construction starts are down in the current market where higher interest rates are making it tough to pencil out new projects. But, for some developers, the bigger problem these days is sourcing equity versus debt.
Despite headwinds, debt funds continue to fill the void in commercial real estate financing.
It’s tough to view a strong economy as bad news. Yet a firmly positive economic projection in ULI’s Real Estate Economic Forecast does not bode well for commercial real estate participants who are hoping for relief in rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
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Demand for industrial space has pushed vacancies to historically low levels. But the high tide may no longer be lifting all boats. A surge in new supply along with a growing appetite for more modern facilities is putting more pressure on the sector’s aging building stock. Legacy buildings are having a tougher time keeping up with the changing demands of today’s space users.
Potential trouble brewing in a sector that has been viewed as relatively bulletproof multifamily sector is concerning. But while stress is very much real, industry participants are quick to point out that the overall foundation for multifamily remains strong. “The cracks that we’re seeing are not structural; they’re superficial,” says Vincent DiSalvo, chief investment officer at Kingbird Investment Management, a family office investment firm specializing in multifamily.
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The latest troubles at New York Community Bank have some observers wondering whether it could be a canary in the coal mine for the broader regional banking sector. Regional banks are definitely in a tough spot due to deposit flight, higher funding costs, and concerns about problematic commercial real estate loans. But, at least for now, troubles seem to be limited to a few isolated cases, rather than systemic.
The strain of higher interest rates is creating sleepless nights for some commercial real estate owners and operators these days. On the flip side, there is significant capital eagerly lining up to take advantage of market dislocation.
Uncertainty around asset prices likely to slow transactions.
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