Headlines
“Fitch Sees CMBS Defaults Stabilizing; Cumulative Rate [of default] to Top 12 Percent”Talk about mixed messages! I think what Fitch is saying is that the pace of defaults is slowing and we will reach the high-water mark—12 percent plus this year.
Monday’s Numbers
The Commercial Mortgage Alert Trepp weekly survey (below) of 15 active portfolio lenders widened 5 to 10 basis points during the week, with all-in costs remaining in the 5.00+/- percent range.
Asking Spreads over U.S. Treasury Bonds in Basis Points (10-year Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Loans with 50% to 59% Loan-to-Value Ratios) | |||
12/31/09 | 12/31/10 | 5/20/11 | |
Office | 342 | 214 | 176 |
Retail | 326 | 207 | 169 |
Multifamily | 318 | 188 | 151 |
Industrial | 333 | 201 | 166 |
Average Asking Spread | 330 | 203 | 161 |
10-Year Treasury | 3.83% | 3.29% | 3.15% |
The Cushman & Wakefield Sonnenblick-Goldman Survey for the period ended May 12 showed spreads narrowing 10 to 15 basis points and financing remaining available at attractive and affordable rates.
Property Type | Mid-Point of Fixed Rate Commercial Mortgage Spreads For 5 Year Commercial Real Estate Mortgages | ||||
12/16/10 | 3/2/11 | 3/31/11 | 4/28/11 | 5/12/11 | |
Multifamily - Non-Agency | +270 | +245 | +245 | +230 | +225 |
Multifamily – Agency | +280 | +250 | +250 | +205 | +200 |
Regional Mall | +280 | +260 | +260 | +260 | +255 |
Grocery Anchored | +280 | +260 | +260 | +245 | +245 |
Strip and Power Centers |
|
|
|
| +265 |
Multi-Tenant Industrial | +270 | +265 | +265 | +245 | +245 |
CBD Office | +280 | +260 | +260 | +250 | +250 |
Suburban Office | +300 | +270 | +270 | +260 | +260 |
Full-Service Hotel | +320 | +300 | +300 | +280 | +275 |
Limited-Service Hotel | +400 | +325 | +325 | +320 | +320 |
5-Year Treasury | 2.60% | 2.17% | 2.23% | 2.05% | 1.88% |
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Sonnenblick Goldman. | |||||
Property Type | Mid-Point of Fixed Rate Commercial Mortgage Spreads For 10 Year Commercial Real Estate Mortgages | ||||
12/1610 | 3/2/11 | 3/31/11 | 4/12/11 | 5/12/11 | |
Multifamily - Non-Agency | +190 | +180 | +180 | +180 | +180 |
Multifamily – Agency | +200 | +185 | +185 | +185 | +175 |
Regional Mall | +175 | +180 | +180 | +180 | +180 |
Grocery Anchor | +190 | +185 | +185 | +181 | +175 |
Strip and Power Centers |
|
|
|
| +190 |
Multi-Tenant Industrial | +190 | +190 | +190 | +190 | +185 |
CBD Office | +180 | +180 | +180 | +180 | +180 |
Suburban Office | +190 | +190 | +190 | +190 | +190 |
Full-Service Hotel | +290 | +230 | +230 | +230 | +220 |
Limited-Service Hotel | +330 | +260 | +260 | +240 | +240 |
10-Year Treasury | 3.47% | 3.47% | 3.45% | 3.51% | 3.22% |
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Sonnenblick Goldman. | |||||
Property Type | Mid-Point of Floating-Rate Commercial Mortgage Spreads For 3 - 5 Commercial Real Estate Year Mortgages | ||||
12/16/10 | 3/31/11 | 4/12/11 | 4/28/11 | 5/12/11 | |
Multifamily – Non-Agency | +250-300 | +225-300 | +225-325 | +225-315 | +205-300 |
Multifamily- Agency | +300 | +250-300 | +250-310 | +250-310 | +225-310 |
Regional Mall | +275-300 | +225-300 | +225-300 | +225-300 | +200-275 |
Grocery Anchored | +275-300 | +225-300 | +225-300 | +225-300 | +210-285 |
Strip and Power Centers |
|
|
|
| +230-300 |
Multi-Tenant Industrial | +250-350 | +250-350 | +250-350 | +250-350 | +235-325 |
CBD Office | +225-300 | +225-300 | +225-300 | +225-300 | +225-300 |
Suburban Office | +250-350 | +275-350 | +275-350 | +250-350 | +250-350 |
Full-Service Hotel | +300-450 | +350-450 | +350-450 | +350-450 | +350-450 |
Limited-Service Hotel | +450-600 | +400-500 | +400-500 | +400-500 | +400-500 |
1-Month LIBOR | 0.26% | 0.24% | 0.22% | 0.21% | 0.20% |
3-Month LIBOR | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.28% | 0.27% | 0.26% |
* A dash (-) indicates a range. | |||||
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Sonnenblick Goldman. | |||||
Year-to-Date Public Equity Capital Markets
DJIA (1): +7.456%
S & P 500 (2):+5.84%
NASDAQ (3): +5.43%
Russell 2000 (4):+6.68%
MSCI U.S. REIT (5):+10.78%
(1) Dow Jones Industrial Average. (2) Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index. (3) NASD Composite Index. (4) Small Capitalization segment of U.S. equity universe. (5) Morgan Stanley REIT Index.
U.S. Treasury Yields | ||
12/31/10 | 5/27/2011 | |
3-Month | 0.12% | 0.04% |
6-Month | 0.18% | 0.10% |
2 Year | 0.59% | 0.48% |
5 Year | 2.01% | 1.72% |
10 Year | 3.29% | 3.07% |
