During his keynote speech at the 2025 ULI Europe Conference in London on June 18, Daniel Lacalle. chief economist of Spanish private bank Tressis, told real estate business leaders they should be allocating more investment dollars to hard assets such as real estate. “Hold hard assets like there is no tomorrow,” he said. “Hold onto hard assets as much as you can.”
The Madrid-based economist told the 750 delegates that investors face an “absolutely critical” opportunity in light of global macroeconomic trends, monetary correction, regulatory reform, and geopolitical realignment.
“We are already in an economic crisis,” he said. “There is no better time to invest than when everyone believes we’re in crisis. Don’t fall for dystopia. Don’t get stuck in nostalgia. This is a time of transformation.”
Lacalle maintained that now was the time to buy real estate—alongside cryptocurrencies and tech equities—saying he expected increasing returns for the asset class in the next five years as investors moved away from “low-returning” sovereign debt.
“An asset to avoid is sovereign debt,” he said. “We are not going to get a real economic return on sovereign debt.”
Lacalle said gold was becoming the preferred reserve asset among central banks, another sign that sovereign debt was losing credibility. He argued that sovereign debt returns were decreasing because of rising government spending as a result of the pandemic, and because central banks had been managing interest rates to stimulate economies.
He said that “massively surpassed” limits in fiscal, monetary, and inflationary policy, plus government overspending and regulatory excess, have failed to produce real economic growth or productivity gains—with some countries now in deep financial trouble.
In one of the speech’s more provocative moments, Lacalle described U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies as “an alarm clock with a mirror”—a wakeup call to governments to confront fiscal and trade realities.
In a wide-ranging and impassioned address, Lacalle painted a stark picture of the global economy’s current limitations, but also offered an optimistic forecast for the years ahead. He said political and financial shifts were underway that marked the beginning of a correction—one that would enable real wage growth, improve access to resources, and spark a revival of productive investment.
Lacalle, who at one point referred to his friendship with Trump, said the current U.S. administration had allowed “us to realize that we have a lot of things to improve on,” adding: “The way that we were going prior was the road to a full-blown financial crisis that would have been much worse than the 2008 one.”
He praised the United States for being a “global leader” in energy and technology. The European Union, by contrast, was criticized for excessive regulation and bureaucratic inertia, though described as having “enormous potential” if it embraces reform.
The analyst also pointed to geopolitical and trade realignments—such as the end of globalisation and the rise of Asia, particularly India—as the next major engine of growth.
He also said that China, once seen as the poster child of demand-side economics, was now focusing on supply-side reforms in response to its real estate crisis—a move Lacalle applauded. “We are seeing China finally confront overcapacity with real measures,” he said. “That’s a good thing.”
