Real estate professionals—from developers to investors—may need to re-evaluate underwriting assumptions and growth expectations.

Deal-making has lately proved to be tough sledding for the commercial real estate industry. Although 2024 brought a welcome rise off the bottom in year-over-year sales, total sales still came in at the second-lowest level since 2013. The latest data from MSCI Real Assets shows $438 trillion in 12-month trailing sales volume through February, a 15 percent increase on a year-over-year basis.

The search for new growth and potential out-performance is shifting real estate allocations toward niche sectors such as cold storage, medical office, single-family rentals (SFR), and senior housing.

With a rapidly expanding market, navigating the sea of financing mechanisms is a challenge. These are more than just funding sources. They are strategic tools that channel capital into sustainable projects while also managing environmental risks and delivering financial returns.

Los Angeles-based impact fund manager SDS Capital Group has launched a new capital platform—SDS Impact Debt (SDSID)—that aims to bring much needed, low-cost debt to the affordable housing market. It is an asset-backed model that offers below-market financing (both permanent and construction) for affordable housing projects—and is potentially scalable across the U.S.

Despite improving return-to-office numbers, the office sector still battles numerous challenges that are resulting in higher loan defaults. According to MSCI Real Assets, office leads the charge on rising distress levels, which have not been seen in more than a decade. Office accounts for nearly half of outstanding distress: $51.6 billion in outstanding distress at the end of fourth quarter 2024, and another $74.7 billion in office properties identified as at risk for “potential” distress.

Although ready to commence a new real estate cycle, real estate leaders globally are braced for another challenging year of uncertainty, with lingering inflation, largely driven by factors including geopolitical instability, and persistently higher interest rates in some regions, potentially delaying a hoped-for recovery in capital markets and occupancy metrics. This is according to the Emerging Trends in Real Estate^® Global Outlook 2025 from PwC and ULI, which provides an important gauge of global sentiment for investment and development prospects, amalgamating and updating three regional reports which canvassed thousands of real estate leaders across Europe, the United States and Asia Pacific.

Construction cost inflation continued to moderate in 2024. According to the global construction consulting firm Rider Levett Bucknall, cost inflation for North America increased 1.11 percent in the fourth quarter and rose 4.69 percent on a year-over-year basis. However, the Trump administration’s push for higher tariffs is reigniting concerns around higher costs ahead for real estate developers.

Two of the three leading indicators for U.S. commercial real estate ended 2024 on an upbeat note, particularly on the lending and construction phase, while design billing continued to lag.

Speakers mixed good news and uncertainty at the “ULI New York: Real Estate Outlook 2025" event, held January 22, 2025, at the Stern School of Business at New York University in Manhattan by ULI New York in partnership with NYU Stern | Chen Institute.