Stephen Blank

Stephen R. Blank joined ULI in December 1998 as Senior Fellow, Finance. His primary responsibilities include: expanding ULI’s real estate capital markets information and education programs; authoring real estate capital market commentary; participating as a principal researcher and adviser for the Emerging Trends in Real Estate series of publications; organizing and participating in real estate capital markets programs at ULI events worldwide; and participating in industry meetings, seminars, and conferences. Prior to joining ULI, Blank served from December 1993 to November 1998 as Managing Director, Real Estate Investment Banking of Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. His responsibilities included: structuring, underwriting, and executing corporate financings including initial public offerings of common and preferred shares, unsecured debentures, and convertible bonds; property acquisitions, dispositions, and financing; and financial advisory services including mergers and acquisitions, corporate restructurings, and recapitalizations.

Based on the Federal Reserve’s pronouncement this week that it would be keeping short-term interest rates at the current historical low through 2014, we should expect rates to remain at today’s levels for the next three years, baring a global financial crises, Stephen Blank, ULI’s senior resident fellow, capital markets.
Barclays Capital estimates that as much as 70 percent of the CMBS loans written in 2007 and maturing this year will not be able to be refinanced “easily.”
Stephen R. Blank, ULI’s senior fellow, finance, shares what he learned about the current state of commercial mortgage–backed securities at the recent Commercial Real Estate Finance Council Conference.
Waiting for reaction to the downgrade of sovereign debt in Europe.
According to Trepp LLC, commercial mortgage-backed securities delinquency rates increased 7 basis points (0.07%), to 9.58 percent, in December. Trepp predicts delinquencies rates could increase 75 basis points over the next six-to-12 months as the bulk of the five-year mortgages originated in 2007 mature and will require refinancing.
Surprise! Real estate investment trusts 3-peat, outperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, the NASDAQ Composite Index and the Russell 2000.
According to an analysis completed by Trepp LLC, “U.S. banks are going to face increased challenges in 2012, with slow earnings growth, a mild improvement in loan performance and continued bank failures.” Banks, it was noted, are continuing to face a tough regulatory environment, compounded by fewer and fewer opportunities for future earnings growth.
According to Jones Lang LaSalle’s 2012 National Commercial Real Estate Outlook, the U.S. commercial real estate market will see slow growth in 2012 with a projected increase in transaction volume of 15 percent to 20 percent. Distribution and ports are expected to lead the recovery in the industrial sector while growth in the hotel sector, though slow, is expected to be driven by buy-side demand from private equity funds.
Trepp LLC survey showed spreads narrowing a few basis points across all property types in what was a lackluster week in the debt markets. The Cushman & Wakefield Sonnenblick-Goldman Survey for the period ending December 1, 2011, showed spreads for 10-year mortgages unchanged.
The Trepp LLC survey showed spreads widening approximately 10 basis points across all property types in direct reaction to the continuing Euro-crises. While everyone wants to believe everything is under control, it appears few actually believe it to be so.
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