Kristina Kessler

Kristina Kessler is the former Editor in Chief of Urban Land, the bi-monthly magazine published by Urban Land Institute.

What redevelopment opportunities exist now worth pursuing? In eight U.S. regions, redevelopment in urban neighborhoods accounts for between one fourth and one half of all new construction this year, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. However, the lack of ready sources of capital is forcing developers to partner with city and state governments in creative ways to get projects built.
The number of distressed residential properties spilling onto the U.S. market is expected to depress the national median price for a single-family home another 5 to 10 percent before bottoming by year’s end or early 2011. More than 3 million homes are expected to go into foreclosure this year, with one in four homeowners owing more on their mortgage than their house is worth.

According to Urban Land’s roundtable of housing experts (page 46), markets will be dominated by local public homebuilders, while smaller development companies will focus on small-scale infill development where sites are reasonably priced. With construction costs leveling off, home sizes will shrink. Expect smaller single-family lots and townhouses. Federal stimulus money and some state and local financial assistance are being made available for affordable housing projects. Green design, much discussed lately, is beginning to give projects a marketing edge, participants said.

Though vacancy rates at shopping centers in the United States are not expected to peak until 2011 at around 12.2 percent, the going consensus is that for the most part, the worst of the retail crisis has passed. Too much supply has been part of the problem. Between 1999 and 2008, 25 million to 30 million square feet (2.3 million to 2.8 million sq m) of new shopping center space was added to the market annually, says Ryan Severino, an economist with Reis. This year, the volume of new center completions will likely be around 2.5 million square feet (232,000 sq m), according to CBRE Econometric Advisors. Absorption is expected to turn positive in the fourth quarter, but rents will likely continue to decline through 2012, dropping 2.9 percent this year and 0.4 percent in 2011.
As recovery from the current deep recession begins, creating strategies for reinvesting in the world’s urban areas—where half the planet’s population lives—will require an understanding of development options.
What is looking like a jobless recovery will spell a tepid economic rebound that will not fill buildings. The shakeout period for commercial real estate is now expected to extend several years. Unlike the last crisis, in which overbuilding affected new product, this time around vacancies are affecting the entire built environment, new and old alike. Owners without long-term leases to bridge the downturn will have a hard time surviving 2010.
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