Jeffrey Spivak

Jeffrey Spivak, a senior market analyst in suburban Kansas City, Missouri, is an award-winning writer specializing in real estate development, infrastructure, and demographic trends.

As green building mushroomed in recent years, some industry and legal observers predicted a flood of litigation would accompany that growth. The issue has even spawned a new term—LEEDigation. Though the level of concern about green building risks may have been overblown, read what legal experts are offering as recommendations to guard against green building–related disputes.
According to Reed Construction Data, the Texas metros of Houston and Austin had more new-housing permits per resident than anywhere else during the past year. Right behind them were the North Carolina metros of Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte. Read which metros cracked the top 10 and about the effect of damaged credit histories on the new-home market.
In a recent national webcast, three industry economists predicted a stronger 2011 before several markets—from housing to hotels—ramp up to double-digit percentage growth in 2012. Learn what these experts forecasted for the residential and nonresidential sectors alike—and how Middle East revolutions, steep government spending cuts, and higher gas prices could dampen the overall economic recovery.
Recently, veteran demographer Wendell Cox developed a way to incorporate income in a cost-of-living comparison, to establish the real value of money in a particular place. He called this “purchasing power parity,” and it evaluates higher income-higher cost locales on the East and West coasts with lower income-lower cost places in between. Read Cox’s list of top 10 metros with the best purchasing power, based on cost of living adjustments.
Commercial real estate services firm Grubb & Ellis forecasts U.S. retail sales and leasing to “ramp up gradually” this year. The forecast also includes a metro retail market strength analysis for 2011-2015. In terms of leasing, retailers are repositioning stores to more high-profile locations to take advantage of favorable rental rates, and vacancy rates are expected to begin coming down from a 10+% peak. Read which metros of the United States are predicted to lead the way in growth.
Commercial real estate services firm Grubb & Ellis forecasts the U.S. office market to have a “half-speed recovery” this year, according to the company’s 2011 Real Estate Forecast, released in January. Vacancy rates will drop from 2010’s 17.8% to 17%, net absorption will increase by 35 million square feet and Class A rents will rise by 0.4%. How do these improvements compare to the pace of typical economic recovery or growth cycles?
Foreclosure activity across the United States continues on an upward trend. Among 206 metropolitan areas tracked by RealtyTrac, 65% had year-over-year increases in foreclosures during the third quarter of 2010. For ULI members, a low foreclosure rate can signal a housing market that isn’t flooded with short sales and thus may have more demand for new residential construction. Read about which metros had the worst foreclosure rates for this period.
As happens during a recession, consumer spending in the United States declined 3% in 2009, according to the latest Consumer Expenditure Survey released recently by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Read more about which metros had the most drops in spending dining out and in entertainment – two areas of interest to ULI members involved in retail and mixed-use developments.
China’s retail development and investment opportunities are progressively spreading to large second- and third-tier cities – all with populations above 1 million – which puts added importance on building the right contacts and partnerships in China’s real estate market, advises Rong Ren, chief executive officer of Harvest Capital Partners and a ULI member . Read about how retail has changed in China as a whole, as well as which markets the growth is spreading to and what might be required to invest if you are not from China.
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