Despite stock and bond market volatility in late 2018 and increasing global trade and growth concerns, the April 2019 “ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast” was surprisingly consistent with the previous forecast, released in October 2018. Overall, expectations for 2019 and 2020 are flat to up, while the newly introduced forecast for 2021 calls for slower growth and returns. Moderating growth in gross domestic product (GDP) and jobs for 2019 to 2021 should lead to slower but still positive real estate demand and absorption. Expectations for the real estate market are modest, and the sector is relatively well prepared for slower economic growth, if it occurs.
Real estate economists continue to have a generally bullish outlook for the U.S. economy, capital markets, and real estate fundamentals. These results are based on the semiannual ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast, prepared by the ULI Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate. Overall, expectations have improved since the prior forecast in March 2018, and the strong second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 4.2 percent was fresh in forecasters’ minds as they weighed in on future years.
After predicting an uptick in U.S. economic growth and interest rates six months ago, real estate economists have tempered their forecasts, moving closer to the predictions of one year ago, according to the results of the semiannual ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast, prepared by the ULI Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate. The survey was completed by 46 economists/analysts at 35 leading real estate organizations in September and early October.
The latest survey of U.S. real estate economists showed a marked increase in expected economic measures, most likely due to federal proposals to reform the tax code, reduce regulatory burdens, and invest in infrastructure. Compared with the same survey from six months ago, real estate economists have higher expectations about gross domestic product (GDP) growth, employment growth, and housing starts.
The latest survey of U.S. real estate economists shows continued declines in expected economic and real estate growth rates. Compared with six months ago, real estate economists have reduced their expectations about economic growth, interest rates, commercial mortgage–backed securities (CMBS) issuance, housing starts, and private real estate returns. One area of greater optimism is the industrial sector, with forecasts of lower availability and higher rents and returns.
Mild caution is evident in the latest ULI survey of U.S. real estate economists. Compared with their analysis six months ago, real estate researchers are predicting slower economic growth, slipping real estate fundamentals, and lower returns from both the public and private markets. These results are based on the semiannual “ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast,” prepared by the ULI Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate and scheduled for release Wednesday, April 6.
The latest survey results of the semiannual ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast, prepared by the ULI Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate, pick up on slowing global growth and volatility and are generally less bullish than six months ago. The full forecast will be released on September 30 as part of a members’ only webinar.
