Summary
The top 12 trends in this month’s Barometer point to mixed signals everywhere—in the economy, capital markets, and housing market. Still, compared with a year ago, 79 percent of the key indicators in the Barometer are better and only 21 percent are worse. (For annual projections of key Barometer indicators, see the new ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast).
Note: More commentary and data can be found throughout the tabs and in the accompanying tables.
In those top 12 monthly trends:
- Employment growth in March was a disappointing 120,000 jobs after three straight months of growth that topped 220,000 jobs. At March’s growth rate, it would take more than 3.5 years to regain the 5.2 million jobs lost in the past four years.
- The unemployment rate inched down and is at its lowest level in three years.
- Fourth-quarter 2011 GDP growth remained at its highest level in a year and a half, according to the final estimate. GDP growth is now above its long-term quarterly average.
- Consumer confidence fell from the previous month’s 12-month high; retail sales were strong; total construction put in place declined and is off over 30 percent from its pre-recession high.
- Investment-grade property prices were down in January and general-grade prices were up, according to the latest repeat-sales indices; both remain off by about 30 percent from their pre-recession highs. Estimates of REIT portfolio market values inched up in March after a fairly flat January and February.
- NAREIT returns in March were healthy in all sectors and were strongest in the apartment and industrial sectors.
- Commercial property transaction volumes fell in February to a 12-month low. Continuing the volatility of the past 12 months, CMBS issuance shot up, as did CMBS delinquency rates.
- In the multifamily housing industry, permits inched down from a 38-month high and starts remained stable at their second-highest level in 39 months.
- Permits and starts in the single-family housing industry are at a 21-month high, though still only at a quarter of their peak. Sales of new single-family homes, already near a 50-year low, slid further; but prices jumped to just below their peak.
- Sales of existing single-family homes fell but remain above their 40-year monthly average; prices inched up in February but remain substantially below their peak.
- Inventory (months’ supply) of both new and existing homes remains below long-term monthly averages.
- Total foreclosure filings were down in February to their second-lowest monthly levels in over four years.
