Where are capital markets—and specific real estate sectors—headed? In a novel ULI panel at the ULI Spring Meeting in Detroit, 11 of the Institute’s top leaders revealed their expectations through instant polls on ten market questions.
Cia Buckley Marakovits, chief investment officer at Dune Real Estate Partners, and Ron Insana, a business broadcaster with CNBC and MSNBC, moderated the fast-paced session.
Panelists included Peter Ballon, managing director and global head of real estate investments, CPPIB; Daryl Carter, chairman and chief executive officer, Avanath Capital Management; Franz Colloredo-Mansfeld, president and chief executive officer, Cabot Properties; Mark Gibson, chief executive officer, HFF; Greta Guggenheim, chief executive officer and partner, TPG Real Estate Finance Trust; Cathy Marcus, managing director, global chief operating officer and head of the U.S. business for PGIM Real Estate; Amy Price, president and chief investment officer of Bentall Kennedy; Hilary Provinse, executive vice president and head of mortgage banking, Berkadia Commercial Mortgage; Owen Thomas, chief executive officer, Boston Properties; Thomas W. Toomey, ULI global chairman, and president and chief executive officer, UDR Inc.; and Francois Trausch, chief executive officer, Allianz Real Estate. Panelists abstained from voting on specific questions when doing so would pose a conflict with their business responsibilities.
Here’s how they voted:
Is real estate overpriced?
Nine participants indicated that real estate is fairly valued; only one said property is overpriced and markets are headed for a correction.
If interest rates increase, what will happen to cap rates?
Six said cap rates will rise, four said they will remain flat, and one said they will go down.
Are you incorporating any trade issues in underwriting decisions?
Six said they are not; four said they are.
In the next 18 months, will there be more foreign capital moving into the United States?
Ten said they expect more; one said there will not be more.
What will happen to the real estate of entities like Angbang? (China’s insurance regulators took over control of Angbang Insurance Group in February following a series of high-profile mergers and acquisitions and intend to complete an equity restructuring, according to Fortune magazine.)
Six panelists predicted there will be no change; five said they expect liquidation of investments and resulting buying opportunities.
Have loan-to-value ratios increased over the past year?
Six said no; four said yes.
Are real estate investment trusts (REITs) undervalued or overvalued?
Ten panelists said they are undervalued; no one said they are overvalued.
Will millennials ever buy homes like their parents did?
Ten respondents voted for “Yes; good times are coming for housing.” No one said they believe millennials will decline to buy and instead remain renters or sharers.
What will be the best-performing property sector over the next 12 months?
Seven chose industrial; three chose multifamily; one chose retail. No one voted for office.
What will be the worst-performing sector over the next 12 months?
Seven chose retail. Office, industrial, and multifamily each received one vote.