Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities Delinquencies Reach 8.48 Percent

Fitch Ratings prediction from earlier in the year that commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) delinquencies would reach 12 percent by year-end is unfortunately looking “spot on” as delinquencies reached 8.48 percent as of August 31, 2010, an increase of 23 basis points (0.23%) as compared to July 31, 2010.

Fitch Ratings prediction from earlier in the year that commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) delinquencies would reach 12 percent by year-end is unfortunately looking “spot on” as delinquencies reached 8.48 percent as of August 31, 2010, an increase of 23 basis points (0.23%) as compared to July 31, 2010.

Quick background: Fitch rates $436.9 billion of U.S. CMBS transactions which are comprised by approximately 40,000 commercial real estate mortgage loans. Fitch’s delinquency “stats” includes loans which are at least 60 days overdue or are in foreclosure.

The following chart lays-out Fitch’s delinquency index by property sector:

Property Sector

August 2010

July 2010

August 2009

Hospitality

20.80%

18.64%

3.79%

Multifamily

14.18%

13.87%

5.44%

Retail

6.11%

6.35%

3.22%

Industrial

5.55%

5.20%

2.40%

Office

5.06%

5.08%

1.70%

Overall

8.48%

8.25%

3.04%

Source: Fitch.

Stephen R. Blank joined ULI in December 1998 as Senior Fellow, Finance. His primary responsibilities include: expanding ULI’s real estate capital markets information and education programs; authoring real estate capital market commentary; participating as a principal researcher and adviser for the Emerging Trends in Real Estate series of publications; organizing and participating in real estate capital markets programs at ULI events worldwide; and participating in industry meetings, seminars, and conferences. Prior to joining ULI, Blank served from December 1993 to November 1998 as Managing Director, Real Estate Investment Banking of Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. His responsibilities included: structuring, underwriting, and executing corporate financings including initial public offerings of common and preferred shares, unsecured debentures, and convertible bonds; property acquisitions, dispositions, and financing; and financial advisory services including mergers and acquisitions, corporate restructurings, and recapitalizations.
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