Susan Persin

Senior director of research at Trepp.

Will real estate fundamentals strengthen further or weaken after a new administration takes office in January?
Real estate investment trusts posted a second consecutive month of negative total returns, causing investor concern about interest rates and underlying valuations. Plus, interest rate survey data from Trepp.
More than 55 years after the REIT Act title was signed into law as part of the Cigar Excise Tax Extension of 1960, India’s first real estate investment trust (REIT) is slated for an initial public offering, though it is unlikely to list until early 2017. Plus, interest rate survey data from Trepp.
Ongoing uncertainty about the timing of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike and its impact on REITs has kept potential IPOs on the sidelines. In addition, the Internal Revenue Service issued regulations in June that clamped down on tax-free REIT spin-offs that were a significant source of growth for specialty REITs. Plus, interest rate survey data from Trepp.
Brick-and-mortar stores will benefit from holiday spending, but robust growth is not expected at those outlets. Instead, warehouses and call centers will be bigger beneficiaries of holiday spending this year, with the recent RetailNext forecast calling for a 14.9 percent growth in online sales. Plus, interest rate survey data from Trepp.
Construction during the current real estate cycle has generally stayed below historical trends, but deliveries have increased as the cycle matures. For example, real estate investment trusts like Avalon Bay and Equity Residential with significant investments in apartment markets like Manhattan and San Francisco have already cut their revenue forecasts several times this year. Plus, interest rate survey data from Trepp.
Encouraging economic news released in August heightened the potential that the Fed will increase interest rates. But this good news proved to be a bit too positive, as it may have contributed to a withdrawal in the real estate investment trust sector. Plus, interest rate survey data from Trepp.
Prison real estate investment trusts have been volatile during recent weeks in the aftermath of the Bureau of Prisons’ announcement that it would not extend or renew its contracts with private prisons. Declining prison populations also factored into the decision. Plus, interest rate survey data from Trepp.
Back-to-school is the second biggest shopping season for U.S. retailers. But shoppers are favoring discounters more, including off-price chains, dollar stores, and lines like Macy’s Backstage and Nordstrom Rack. Plus, interest rate survey data from Trepp.
Macy’s has announced plans to close 100 of its 675 traditional full-price locations and to increase investment in its online channel, which heightened concern about bricks-and-mortar retail versus e-commerce and led regional mall REITs lower. Plus, interest rate survey data from Trepp.
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