Headlines

“Dim Outlook for Banks in 2012”
 

According to an analysis completed by Trepp LLC, “U.S. banks are going to face increased challenges in 2012, with slow earnings growth, a mild improvement in loan performance and continued bank failures.” Banks, it was noted, are continuing to face a tough regulatory environment, compounded by fewer and fewer opportunities for future earnings growth. [Banks have to also face continuing global capital markets volatility.]

For 2012, it appears the Grinch stole the commercial banking sector’s Christmas.

 Monday’s Numbers

The Trepp LLC survey is “on holiday” and will return after the New Year.

Asking Spreads over U.S. Treasury Bonds in Basis Points

(10-year Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Loans with 50% to 59% Loan-to-Value Ratios)

12/31/09

12/31/10

12/9/11

Office

342

214

206

Retail

326

207

206

Multifamily

318

188

196

Industrial

333

201

201

 

 

 

Average Asking Spread

330

203

202

 

 

 

10-Year Treasury

3.83%

3.29%

2.06%

The Cushman & Wakefield Sonnenblick-Goldman Survey is on holiday too.

Property Type

Mid-Point of Fixed Rate Commercial Mortgage

Spreads For 5 Year Commercial Real Estate Mortgages

12/31/10

3/31/11

6/30/11

9/30/11

12/1/11

Multifamily – Non-Agency

+270

+245

+230

+250

+265

Multifamily – Agency

+280

+250

+210

+255

+255

Regional Mall

+280

+260

+265

+300

+310

Grocery Anchored

+280

+260

+250

+290

+295

Strip and Power Centers

 

 

+270

+310

+320

Multi-Tenant Industrial

+270

+265

+255

+295

+310

CBD Office

+280

+260

+255

+290

+310

Suburban Office

+300

+270

+270

+310

+325

Full-Service Hotel

+320

+300

+275

+335

+350

Limited-Service Hotel

+400

+325

+310

+345

+360

5-Year Treasury

2.60%

2.23%

1.52%

0.99%

0.98%

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Sonnenblick Goldman.

Property Type

Mid-Point of Fixed Rate Commercial Mortgage

Spreads For 10 Year Commercial Real Estate Mortgages

12/31/10

3/31/11

6/30/11

9/30/11

12/1/11

Multifamily – Non-Agency

+190

+180

+185

+240

+240

Multifamily – Agency

+200

+185

+175

+235

+235

Regional Mall

+175

+180

+190

+250

+250

Grocery Anchor

+190

+185

+200

+240

+245

Strip and Power Centers

 

 

+195

+255

+260

Multi-Tenant Industrial

+190

+190

+190

+250

+245

CBD Office

+180

+180

+190

+250

+250

Suburban Office

+190

+190

+195

+255

+265

Full-Service Hotel

+290

+230

+225

+300

+300

Limited-Service Hotel

+330

+260

+245

+325

+305

10-Year Treasury

3.47%

3.45%

2.94%

2.01%

2.13%

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Sonnenblick Goldman.

Property Type

Mid-Point of Floating-Rate Commercial Mortgage

Spreads For 3 – 5 Commercial Real Estate Year Mortgages

12/31/10

3/31/11

6/30/11

9/30/11

12/1/11

Multifamily – Non-Agency

+250-300

+225-325

+200-260

+225-250

+200-250

Multifamily- Agency

+300

+250-310

+220-260

+230-265

+220-265

Regional Mall

+275-300

+225-300

+205-270

+225-275

+215-275

Grocery Anchored

+275-300

+225-300

+205-275

+215-275

+210-275

Strip and Power Centers

 

 

+225-300

+225-300

+220-300

Multi-Tenant Industrial

+250-350

+250-350

+230-325

+250-325

+225-325

CBD Office

+225-300

+225-300

+215-300

+240-300

+225-300

Suburban Office

+250-350

+275-350

+250-325

+265-325

+245-325

Full-Service Hotel

+300-450

+350-450

+350-450

+350-450

+350-425

Limited-Service Hotel

+450-600

+400-500

+400-500

+400-500

+400-500

1-Month LIBOR

0.26%

0.22%

0.19%

0.24%

0.27%

3-Month LIBOR

0.30%

0.28%

0.25%

0.37%

0.53%

* A dash (-) indicates a range.

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Sonnenblick Goldman.

Year-to-Date Public Equity Capital Markets

DJIA (1): +6.19%
S & P 500 (2)+0.61%
NASDAQ (3): -1.29%
Russell 2000 (4):-4.59%
Morgan Stanley U.S. REIT (5):+5.25%
_____
 (1) Dow Jones Industrial Average. (2) Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index. (3) NASD Composite Index.
(4) Small Capitalization segment of U.S. equity universe. (5) Morgan Stanley REIT Index.

U.S. Treasury Yields

12/31/10

12/23/11

3-Month

0.12%

0.01%

6-Month

0.18%

0.03%

2 Year

0.59%

0.28%

5 Year

2.01%

0.98%

10 Year

3.29%

2.02%