Headlines

“Slow growth in 2012”

According to Jones Lang LaSalle’s 2012 National Commercial Real Estate Outlook, the U.S. commercial real estate market will see slow growth in 2012 with a projected increase in transaction volume of 15 percent to 20 percent. Distribution and ports are expected to lead the recovery in the industrial sector while growth in the hotel sector, though slow, is expected to be driven by buy-side demand from private equity funds.

Monday’s Numbers

The Trepp LLC survey showed spreads narrowing a few basis points across all property types as the markets start to shut-down for the balance of 2111.

Asking Spreads over U.S. Treasury Bonds in Basis Points
(10-year Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Loans with 50% to 59% Loan-to-Value Ratios)

12/31/09

12/31/10

12/9/11

Office

342

214

206

Retail

326

207

206

Multifamily

318

188

196

Industrial

333

201

201

Average Asking Spread

330

203

202

10-Year Treasury

3.83%

3.29%

2.06%

The Cushman & Wakefield Sonnenblick-Goldman Survey for the period ending December 1, 2011 showed spreads for 10-year mortgages unchanged.

Property Type

Mid-Point of Fixed Rate Commercial Mortgage
Spreads For 5 Year Commercial Real Estate Mortgages

12/31/10

3/31/11

6/30/11

9/30/11

12/1/11

Multifamily – Non-Agency

+270

+245

+230

+250

+265

Multifamily – Agency

+280

+250

+210

+255

+255

Regional Mall

+280

+260

+265

+300

+310

Grocery Anchored

+280

+260

+250

+290

+295

Strip and Power Centers

 

 

+270

+310

+320

Multi-Tenant Industrial

+270

+265

+255

+295

+310

CBD Office

+280

+260

+255

+290

+310

Suburban Office

+300

+270

+270

+310

+325

Full-Service Hotel

+320

+300

+275

+335

+350

Limited-Service Hotel

+400

+325

+310

+345

+360

5-Year Treasury

2.60%

2.23%

1.52%

0.99%

0.98%

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Sonnenblick Goldman.

Property Type

Mid-Point of Fixed Rate Commercial Mortgage
Spreads For 10 Year Commercial Real Estate Mortgages

12/31/10

3/31/11

6/30/11

9/30/11

12/1/11

Multifamily – Non-Agency

+190

+180

+185

+240

+240

Multifamily – Agency

+200

+185

+175

+235

+235

Regional Mall

+175

+180

+190

+250

+250

Grocery Anchor

+190

+185

+200

+240

+245

Strip and Power Centers

 

 

+195

+255

+260

Multi-Tenant Industrial

+190

+190

+190

+250

+245

CBD Office

+180

+180

+190

+250

+250

Suburban Office

+190

+190

+195

+255

+265

Full-Service Hotel

+290

+230

+225

+300

+300

Limited-Service Hotel

+330

+260

+245

+325

+305

10-Year Treasury

3.47%

3.45%

2.94%

2.01%

2.13%

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Sonnenblick Goldman.

Property Type

Mid-Point of Floating-Rate Commercial Mortgage
Spreads For 3 – 5 Commercial Real Estate Year Mortgages

12/31/10

3/31/11

6/30/11

9/30/11

12/1/11

Multifamily – Non-Agency

+250-300

+225-325

+200-260

+225-250

+200-250

Multifamily- Agency

+300

+250-310

+220-260

+230-265

+220-265

Regional Mall

+275-300

+225-300

+205-270

+225-275

+215-275

Grocery Anchored

+275-300

+225-300

+205-275

+215-275

+210-275

Strip and Power Centers

 

 

+225-300

+225-300

+220-300

Multi-Tenant Industrial

+250-350

+250-350

+230-325

+250-325

+225-325

CBD Office

+225-300

+225-300

+215-300

+240-300

+225-300

Suburban Office

+250-350

+275-350

+250-325

+265-325

+245-325

Full-Service Hotel

+300-450

+350-450

+350-450

+350-450

+350-425

Limited-Service Hotel

+450-600

+400-500

+400-500

+400-500

+400-500

1-Month LIBOR

0.26%

0.22%

0.19%

0.24%

0.27%

3-Month LIBOR

0.30%

0.28%

0.25%

0.37%

0.53%

* A dash (-) indicates a range.

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Sonnenblick Goldman.

Year-to-Date Public Equity Capital Markets

DJIA (1): +2.50%
S & P 500 (2)-03.02%
NASDAQ (3): -3.68%
Russell 2000 (4):-7.68%
Morgan Stanley U.S. REIT (5):+4.87%
_____
 (1) Dow Jones Industrial Average. (2) Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index. (3) NASD Composite Index. (4) Small Capitalization segment of U.S. equity universe. (5) Morgan Stanley REIT Index.

U.S. Treasury Yields

12/31/10

12/17/11

3-Month

0.12%

-0.01%

6-Month

0.18%

0.03%

2 Year

0.59%

0.22%

5 Year

2.01%

0.80%

10 Year

3.29%

1.85%