Headlines are normally self-explanatory—we hope the ones we publish will convey a sense of the terms and conditions present in the real estate capital markets. Given that, this week’s “Monday’s Numbers” should be subtitled: $13 Billion of CMBS Deals Already in 1Q Pipeline.

The Commercial Mortgage Alert Trepp weekly survey (below) of 15 active portfolio lenders widened slightly during the most recent survey period. It’s year-end, and lenders are starting to focus on next year’s allocations. If it’s a typical start, rates will be up slightly as lenders test the waters as to what spreads will work and what borrowers’ will accept. We’ll see if the current glass ceiling of 5.0 percent holds or if it’s off to the races in 2011.

Asking Spreads over U.S. Treasury Bonds in Basis Points

(10-year Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Loans with 50% to 59% Loan-to-Value ratios)

12/31

11/5

11/12

11/26

12/3

12/10

Office

342

228

221

222

220

221

Retail

326

213

209

208

206

209

Multifamily

318

198

195

195

192

195

Industrial

333

211

206

208

202

206

Average Asking Spread

330

213

208

208

205

208

10-Year Treasury

3.83%

2.53%

2.79%

2.72%

2.72%

2.98%

Source: Commercial Mortgage Alert; Trepp.

Changes in spreads in the December 3 Cushman & Wakefield Sonnenblick-Goldman fixed and floating mortgage rate survey (below) were basically nil, continuing to support our 10-year term, 5.0 percent, glass ceiling thesis.

Property Type

Mid-Point of Fixed Rate Commercial Mortgage

Spreads For 5 Year Commercial Real Estate Mortgages

1/6/10

10/27/10

11/11/10

12/3/10

12/16/10

Multifamily – Non-Agency

+360

+280

+280

+280

+270

Multifamily – Agency

+220

+250

+280

+280

+280

Regional Mall

+450

+290

+305

+290

+280

Strip/Power Center

+460

+295

+280

+300

+280

Multi-Tenant Industrial

+435

+275

+280

+280

+270

CBD Office

+435

+270

+280

+280

+280

Suburban Office

+465

+300

+300

+300

+300

Full-Service Hotel

+500

+375

+350

+350

+320

Limited-Service Hotel

+500

+450

+425

+380

+400

5-Year Treasury

2.60%

1.14%

1.11%

1.66%

2.12%

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Sonnenblick Goldman.

Property Type

Mid-Point of Fixed Rate Commercial Mortgage

Spreads For 10 Year Commercial Real Estate Mortgages

1/6/10

10/27/10

11/11/10

12/3/10

12/1610

Multifamily – Non-Agency

+300

+180

+180

+190

+190

Multifamily – Agency

+220

+190

+190

+200

+200

Regional Mall

+350

+200

+215

+175

+175

Strip/Power Center

+350

+205

+220

+190

+190

Multi-Tenant Industrial

+420

+190

+190

+190

+190

CBD Office

+330

+190

+190

+190

+180

Suburban Office

+355

+220

+200

+190

+190

Full-Service Hotel

+550

+340

+335

+300

+290

Limited-Service Hotel

+575

+380

+350

+350

+330

10-Year Treasury

3.85%

2.71%

2.72%

2.98%

3.47%

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Sonnenblick Goldman.

Property Type

Mid-Point of Floating-Rate Commercial Mortgage

Spreads For 3 – 5 Commercial Real Estate Year Mortgages

1/6/10

10/27/10

11/11/10

12/3/10

12/1610

Multifamily – Non-Agency

+300 – 400

+275-325

+250-300

+250-300

+250-300

Multifamily- Agency

NA

NA

+300

+300

+300

Regional Mall

+475 – 600

+275-350

+275-350

+275-325

+275-300

Strip/Power Center

+450 – 650

+275-350

+275-350

+275-325

+275-300

Multi-Tenant Industrial

+400 – 500

+250-350

+250-350

+250-350

+250-350

CBD Office

+425

+225-300

+225-300

+225-300

+225-300

Suburban Office

+425

+250-350

+250-350

+250-350

+250-350

Full-Service Hotel

+600

+375-500

+375-500

+300-450

+300-450

Limited-Service Hotel

+750

+450-600

+450-600

+450-600

+450-600

1-Month LIBOR

0.23%

0.26%

0.25%

0.26%

0.26%

3-Month LIBOR

0.25%

0.29%

0.29%

0.30%

0.30%

* A dash (-) indicates a range.

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Sonnenblick Goldman.

Year-to-Date Public Equity Capital Markets

DJIA (1): +10.20%
S & P 500 (2):+11.55%
NASDAQ (3): +16.47%
Russell 2000 (4): +22.92%
MSCI U.S. REIT (5):+18.54%

 (1) Dow Jones Industrial Average. (2) Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index. (3) NASD Composite Index.
(4) Small Capitalization segment of U.S. equity universe. (5) Morgan Stanley REIT Index.

U.S. Treasury Yields

1/6/10

4/9/10

9/30/10

12/18/10

3-Month

.016%

0.15%

0.15%

0.10%

6-Month

0.25%

0.23%

0.19%

0.17%

2 Year

0.99%

1.06%

0.41%

0.61%

5 Year

2.60%

2.62%

1.26%

1.95%

10 Year

3.85%

3.88%

2.51%

3.33%

Source: Bloomberg LLP.