Stephen Blank

Stephen R. Blank joined ULI in December 1998 as Senior Fellow, Finance. His primary responsibilities include: expanding ULI’s real estate capital markets information and education programs; authoring real estate capital market commentary; participating as a principal researcher and adviser for the Emerging Trends in Real Estate series of publications; organizing and participating in real estate capital markets programs at ULI events worldwide; and participating in industry meetings, seminars, and conferences. Prior to joining ULI, Blank served from December 1993 to November 1998 as Managing Director, Real Estate Investment Banking of Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. His responsibilities included: structuring, underwriting, and executing corporate financings including initial public offerings of common and preferred shares, unsecured debentures, and convertible bonds; property acquisitions, dispositions, and financing; and financial advisory services including mergers and acquisitions, corporate restructurings, and recapitalizations.

The Real Estate Roundtable released the results of its fourth-quarter 2014 Sentiment Survey. Topline findings included the following: increases in interest rates are likely to play out more slowly than expected, equity and debt capital for real estate is widely available, and return expectations have been dialed down by some investors who feel we are nearing the top of the current cycle.
The Trepp survey for the week ended December 5th, showed spreads relatively unchanged over the past 30 days, with the average spread increasing 2 basis points. The implied all-in cost of for a 10-year mortgage remains in the 3.50 percent to 4.00 percent range; last year at this time we were talking rates of 4.50 percent to 5.00 percent.
The Trepp survey for the week ending November 28, 2014, showed spreads relatively unchanged over the past 30 days, with the average spread declining 1 basis point. During the period, borrowers benefited from a 12-basis-point decline in the yield on ten-year Treasury notes. The implied all-in cost of 3.6 percent is 104—repeat, 104—basis points lower than it was on December 31, 2013.
The Trepp survey was not conducted last week due to the Thanksgiving holiday. If the survey had been conducted, it most likely would have shown a decline in average spreads of 10 to 15 basis points, mirroring the recent decline in yields on ten-year Treasury bonds, which closed at 2.18 percent on November 28.
The Trepp survey for the week ending November 14, 2014, showed spreads basically unchanged as the debt markets entered the listless pre–holiday period; the time period stretching from now through the end of the Thanksgiving weekend should be moribund, with not much happening that qualifies as newsworthy.
The Trepp survey for the week ending November 7, 2014, showed average spreads basically unchanged as lenders and borrowers alike focus on getting 2014’s remaining deals “papered” by December 31. Absent the appearance of a “black swan,” we expect nothing of note to change over the next six weeks. All-in cost remains in the wildly attractive 3.50 to 4.00 percent range.
The Trepp survey for the week ending October 31, 2014, showed average spreads basically unchanged with the implied rate for ten-year, modestly leveraged commercial real estate mortgages equaling 3.93 percent—71 basis points lower than at year-end 2013.
The Trepp survey for the week ending October 24, 2014, showed average spreads basically unchanged, with the implied rate for ten-year, modestly leveraged commercial real estate mortgages equaling 3.74 percent—70 basis points lower than at year-end 2013.
The Trepp survey for the week ending October 24, 2014, showed average spreads basically unchanged, with the implied rate for ten-year, modestly leveraged commercial real estate mortgages equaling 3.64 percent—100 basis points lower than year-end 2013.
The Trepp survey for the week ending October 17 showed average spreads widening as much as 15 basis points, with the average breaking the 130-basis-point barrier.
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