by Stephen R. Blank
January 17, 2012
Great take-aways. I would not be surprised if the percentage of 2007 vintage CMBS loans that face a serious equity gap (and imminent default) approaches 40% across all asset classes. Not only has NOI fallen significantly in many markets as compared to '07, but also depressed occupancies, tenant concessions, higher operating costs, accrued deferred maintenance, higher cap rates, higher capital costs, and the lack of available debt will continue to contribute to the problem. I tend to think we will see more special servicers restructuring loans into multiple capital stacks (A/B/C/Mezz notes) with required borrower-funded principal reductions. I suspect DPO's will emerge as a primary vehicle in 2012, and under-performing assets and value-add plays (notes & assets) will reap substantial rewards. No doubt, we will all be busy this year. Cheers.
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Multifamily commercial transactions vaulted last month, even as all other sectors declined, but buyer appetite showed overall strength. The stall in employment growth and decline in unemployment rate does raise questions. -
April 8, 2013
Industrial and retail property sectors gathered steam as absorption vaulted; retail rents reversed their 4.5-year slide. Commercial property transactions calmed down following an impressive end-of-year spike, but buyer appetite otherwise showed strength. -
March 11, 2013